STAT 440 - FORECASTING
Homework #2 - Evaluating Forecasts

This homework assignment continues the work you began on the first assignment, on nonquantitative forecasting techniques.

The Delphi Method is a procedure for aggregating nonquantitative, expert forecasts. The idea is that group wisdom is better than individual wisdom — but that face-to-face interactions often result in one or two individuals dominating the discussion and thus the conclusion. By reducing (or eliminating) direct interaction, all points of view can better be presented and considered.

You have all made individual forecasts of the impact to Stetson University of a hypothetical situation of dropping intercollegiate athletic programs. You all have different thoughts, based upon your knowledge base. It is now time to combine those thoughts into an overall assessment.

The members of the class have been divided into three groups. Assignment was done randomly, and interaction with others in the class will be done anonymously. (Everyone has been assigned a random two-digit identification number.)

I am giving you copies of the assignments written by the other people in your group. You are to read through your fellow-students’ essays, and then do the following:

1) Write a short (roughly half-page, typed single spaced) critique for each member of your group. This should be done on separate sheets of paper. In these critiques, you should respond to their reasoning – indicating what you agree with, what you disagree with, and why. Identify yourself only by number, not by name, on this. Your critiques will be distributed to the original authors.

2) On a SEPARATE page, briefly provide a ranking of the quality of the other essays. Leave yourself out of this ranking. (It’s hard to be objective.) Give brief reasons for your ranking. Again, identify things by number only. (“Number 42 was best and here’s why … number 846 was second and here’s why … etc.”) This information will NOT be shared with others; it is for my information only.

This is due by the beginning of class on Friday, September 7. It is worth 30 points toward your homework/quiz grade. Late homework is not accepted.

NOTE that a third-stage assignment will be coming: After you get the feedback from the other (anonymous) members of your group, you will have a chance to revise your original forecasts.