Who Will Win, Who Ought to Win, Who Should’ve Been Nominated and Who Should’ve Been Left Out, in the opinion of this Stetson University junior.

This year’s Oscar nominations are the very definition of a mixed bag. Great films like Spotlight, The Revenant, and Mad Max: Fury Road each got multiple nominations, showing the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences does know the concept of good taste. On the other hand, all of the people nominated for top actor awards are whiter than the ivory tower that the Academy voters call home. This is 2016; why are we still dealing with this problem? The following is my analysis for the 88th Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE

The Nominees: The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight

Who Will Win: Ok, this is a tough one to call, considering there is no clear front-runner or even a duel between the two obvious choices like we’ve seen in recent years. In my opinion, there are three likely choices for the Oscar: Spotlight, Bridge of Spies and The Revenant. In a predictable move, Spotlight is going to take home the top prize, and deservedly so, as the true successor to the sublime All The President’s Men.

Who Ought to Win: Every film nominated, plus Sicario and Straight Outta Compton, both of which should have been nominated. The fact that there is no clear front-runner or even a duel between the two obvious choices is proof that this past year was a very good year for movies. Personally, my favorite of the current nominees would have to be The Big Short. If a film can make me both laugh hysterically and be emotionally upset after leaving the theater, it’s doing something right.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Nominees: Lenny Abrahamson, Room; Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant; Tom McCarthy, Spotlight; Adam McKay, The Big Short; George Miller, Max Max: Fury Road

Who Will Win: Only one of the nominees here has been recognized as a major Hollywood director with serious artistic merit. That director is George Miller, who made Mad Max: Fury Road, the ultimate action film classic of this decade. If the opening scene doesn’t convince you of Miller’s merit, the rest of the film will.

Who Ought to Win: GEORGE MILLER FOR MAD MAX: FURY ROAD. Got it?

Who Should’ve Been Nominated: Ridley Scott for The Martian.

BEST ACTOR

The Nominees: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo; Matt Damon, The Martian; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant; Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs; Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Who Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio. Oh Leo, Leo, Leo. Four times you’ve been nominated for an acting category, and four times you’ve fallen short. And that’s not counting your career-defining roles in The Departed and Inception, where you were apparently not even considered for any major awards (at least not the ones that people watch, anyways). This time, however, may be your moment to shine. Because unless there is a large block of Oscar voters who feel really strongly about Matt Damon’s work in The Martian, this Oscar is as good as yours.

Who Should’ve Been Nominated: A lot has been said about the Academy’s diversity issues, and none of it is good. However, one snub in particular could have been a stepping stone in rectifying the issue. That would be Michael B. Jordan as the title character in Creed. Any actor who could hold his own against Sylvester Stallone in his greatest role, deserves an award of some kind.

BEST ACTRESS

The Nominees: Cate Blanchett, Carol; Brie Larson, Room; Jennifer Lawrence, Joy; Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years; Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Who Will Win: In all honesty, this category is going to be a two-horse race, because only two of the actresses here did enough in their respective roles to be considered nomination material. Those two actresses, of course, are Cate Blanchett and Saoirse Ronan (Jennifer Lawrence fans, please put down your torches and pitchforks). Considering how Academy voting works, I have a feeling this will be Blanchett’s third Oscar this year, unless there were more people who watched Brooklyn than I thought.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Nominees: Christian Bale, The Big Short; Tom Hardy, The Revenant; Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight; Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies; Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Who Will Win: Lately, there has been a very clear narrative: many of the voters really like The Revenant. With that in mind, it’s probably likely that they’ll give the award to Tom Hardy, an actor who had an excellent run this year with this film and Mad Max: Fury Road.

Who Ought to Win: This may be seen as a ‘legacy win’, but I think Stallone ought to win it for his work in Creed. After all, Rocky Balboa was his greatest role, and nowhere was this more apparent than in Creed. And to please the irony gods, Michael B. Jordan can come up to accept the Oscar on Stallone’s behalf.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The Nominees: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight; Rooney Mara, Carol; Rachel McAdams, Spotlight; Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl; Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Who Will Win: This one is a toss up. In this case, it will be between Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl and Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs. Even then, I think the latter will win for two reasons: 1) Kate Winslet is already a known entity for Oscars with her win a while back for The Reader, and 2) Vikander may be the rising Hollywood star, but Winslet was in the far superior movie. Plus, Alicia Vikander should be in the Best Actress category for her work in Ex Machina. Enough said.

Who Should’ve Been Nominated: Helen Mirren for Trumbo.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

The Nominees: Matt Charman, Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Bridge of Spies; Alex Garland, Ex Machina; Josh Cooley, Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Inside Out; Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer, Spotlight; Andrea Berloff, Jonathan Herman, S. Leigh Savidge, Alan Wenkus, Straight Outta Compton

Who Will Win: Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer for Spotlight. The screenplay was subtle and nuanced, acknowledging the multiple facets of what actually occurred while maintaining the narrative of exposing a massive institutional cover-up.

Who Ought to Win: Having said that, Straight Outta Compton might leave more of an impact in the years to come. A good example of dialogue and witty writing is the exchange between Dr. Dre and Eazy-E while recording “Boyz-in-the-Hood.” 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

The Nominees: Adam McKay, Charles Randolph, The Big Short; Nick Hornby, Brooklyn; Phyllis Nagy, Carol; Drew Goddard, The Martian; Emma Donoghue, Room

Who Will Win: The Martian. The screenplay is tight and succinct, using the material from Andy Weir’s bestselling novel as a platform for clever writing and genuine themes, mostly revolving human ingenuity and humanity’s desire to explore.

Who Ought to Win: Then again, The Big Short was essentially able to do almost the exact same thing with Michael Lewis’ book on the 2008 financial crisis.

Who Should’ve Been Nominated: Mad Max: Fury Road.

Enjoy the show!

by David Baker