Florida may be known as the Sunshine State, but ironically is also the state most likely to be hit by a hurricane. If you live anywhere near Florida’s coastline, you’re familiar with the dreaded “cone of uncertainty” and what it means to find yourself in it. Do you stock up and hunker down, or do you get the hell out of Dodge? Your decision likely depends on how long you think it will take to evacuate. What if you were told that it would take up to three and a half days to get to safety? Would that affect your choice?
The Regional Evacuation Studies published by the Florida Department of Management Services are the basis by which evacuation times are determined under state law, and they paint a dire picture, particularly for counties along our southern coastlines. The problem is that these evacuation times have no basis in reality because the assumptions underlying the data are patently unrealistic in themselves. These exaggerated evacuation times can create distorted expectations on the part of potential evacuees, perhaps causing people to stay put when they should go. But the clearance times also have major implications on local land planning decisions under Section 163.3178 of the Florida Statutes.
This Article discusses evacuation times in the context of a recent land use case, arguing that the state-mandated clearance times are arbitrary, produce needlessly inflated results, and should be abandoned in favor of an approach that simply requires developers to fully mitigate their impacts.